Tier 1: 2025 Big Races

  1. elect a Democrat to the VA Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) won by 2% in 2021 (term-limited); seat rated lean-D
  2. state legislature hold precarious majority, just 2 seats in House of Delegates and in State Senate
  3. message to Republicans in Congress
  1. defend 3 Democratic judges up for re-election in the State Supreme Court won by 13% in 2018; Fetterman (D) won by 5% in 2022, race rated lean-D as of Jul
  2. key to winning the House in 2026 & presidential elections in 2028 court controls how elections take place in the state
We will also write for any special elections that may arise this year. We'll, of course, be working on special elections (the House, for example, is so close that we have a real chance of flipping it even before 2026: people die, retire, go to jail, etc).

Tier 2: Multi-Target for 2026

AZ
keep D governor rated toss-up; Katy Hobbs won by 0.7% in 2022
legislature flip opportunity 3 seats for Senate, 4 for House
2 key US House seats toss-up AZ-03 (R), AZ-06 (R)
GA
flip R governor rated toss-up; Brian Kemp won by 7.5% in 2022
keep D Senate seat rated toss-up; Jon Ossoff won by 1.2% in 2021
legislature longer-term flip opportunity 11 seats for House
MI
keep D governor rated toss-up; Gretchen Whitmer (term-limited) won by 10.6% in 2022
keep D Senate seat rated as toss-up; Gary Peters (not running) won by 1.7% in 2020
3 key US House seats toss-up MI-07 (R), lean-R MI-10, lean-D MI-08
legislature flip opportunity 4 seats for House
WI
keep D governor rated toss-up; Tony Evers won by 3.3% in 2022 (not running)
legislature flip opportunity 2 seats for Senate, 5 for House
key US House seat toss-up WI-03 (R)

Tier 3: Also Important

CA:
try to get rid of some of our Rs in the US House of Representatives:
Toss-up districts: CA-13 (Gray won by D+0.08%), CA-45 (Tran won by D+0.2%)
Lean-R flippable: CA-22 (Valadao won by 6.8%), CA-40 (Kim won by 10.6%), CA-41 (Calvert won by 3.4%)
Lean-D vulnerable: CA-09 (Harder won by 3.6%), CA-27 (Whitesides won by 2.6%), CA-47 (Min won by 2.8%)
NY:
try to get rid of some of their Rs in the US House of Representatives:
Toss-up districts: NY-04 (Gillen won by D+2.4%)
Lean-R flippable: NY-17 (Lawler won by 6.3%)
Lean-D vulnerable: NY-03 (Suozzi won by 3.6%), NY-19 (Riley won by 2.2%)
NC:
flip R Senate seat rated toss-up; Thom Tillis won by 1.8% in 2020
legislature long-term flip opportunity 6 seats for Senate, 12 seats for House
key US House seat toss-up NC-01 (D)
PA:
legislature hold D majority in the State House only by 1 seat
3 key US House seats toss-up PA-07 (R), PA-10 (R); lean-R PA-08
IA:
flip R Governor this open seat is rated lean R
flip R Senate seat rated likely R; Joni Ernst won by 6.5% in 2020
2 key US House seats toss-up IA-01 (R), lean-R IA-03

Tier 4: We Wish

To be able to do anything in the Senate, we must keep all D seats AND flip R seats, no matter how difficult it will be

OH:
flip R Senate seat rated as likely R (Jon Husted was appointed, Sherrod Brown lost by just 3.6% in 2024)
2 key US House seats toss-up D seats OH-09 (Captur) and OH-13 (Sykes)
TX:
flip R Senate seat rated as likely R (John Cornyn won by 9.6% in 2020, Colin Alred lost by just 8.5% in 2024)
2 key US House seats lean-D TX-28, toss-up TX-34 (D)
ME:
flip R Senate seat rated as likely R (Susan Collins won by 8.6% in 2020)
defend D governor rated likely D
key US House seat toss-up ME-02 (D)
NV:
flip R Governor rated toss-up; Lombardo won by 1.5% in 2022
key US House seat lean-D NV-03
legislature hold currently blue

Why make an electoral plan? One of the core goals of this group has been preserving and driving electoral change. We will continue to do what we have been good at doing: registering, informing, and persuading voters by postcards, letters, and phone calls. Despite the heartbreaking losses of 2024, all the research I've seen says that these strategies work (as part of a larger program of messaging, persuasion, calling, canvassing, and fundraising, of course!).

This doesn't prevent us from doing other important work: to preserve our ability to make electoral change and generally resist Trump's destruction of America. This involves educating the public on the harm being done, especially in key states, collaborating with other local groups to take direct action through protests and other civic actions, training on the best organizing and outreach methods, and more.

What is this electoral plan based on? The plan focuses on the biggest bang for the buck as well as some "love". That means top priorities are the "multi-target" states that with our focus could win the governorship, the US Senate seat, flip or defend key US House seats, and flip the state legislature. The lowest priority are "love" campaigns that may not be as likely to win but important to building long-term Dem presence. I base the plan on the research completed by Cook's Political Report, The Downballot, Sister District, Swing Left, polling averages, and other sources.

Last updated Jul.28, 2025.